Chaos in the CFP
- Tommy Hailey
- Nov 29, 2022
- 5 min read
This may or may not come out before or after the final CFP rankings. College Football year in and year out always find ways to be a flair for the dramatic for example 2007 always comes to mind when literally every week it seemed like the top 5 was ever so changing. Now, college football has stepped away from the BCS format and has a committee deciding the four teams that would play for a title (the crystal football should still be the trophy but that’s a whole different argument for another time). In the now nine years the Playoff has been a thing we have seen its fair share of chaos, arguments, and the repetitiveness of Bama and Clemson but as of late that has changed teams have adapted to straight-up outplay Bama and Clemson in both recruitment and play the best example is Georgia being a dominant force on the offensive side of the ball but being a downright force of nature on defense. But this is an article about the current CFP rankings and what we are getting into so let's start. We Start with the most recent penultimate rankings right after rivalry week and these are the rankings as follows
UGA
Michigan
TCU
USC
Ohio St.
Alabama
Tennessee
Penn St.
Clemson
Kansas St.
Utah
Washington
Florida St.
LSU
Oregon St.
Oregon
UCLA
Tulane
South Carolina
Texas
Notre Dame
UCF
North Carolina
Mississippi St.
NC State
Now this seems pretty tame for the after-rivalry week rankings but it is far from it let’s start with Ohio State, getting absolutely embarrassed by your most bitter and hated rival in Michigan by 22 AT HOME and a second straight loss to the Maze and Blue. Having one loss and no trip to Indy for a chance at a playoff spot they are sitting and awaiting what happens to USC this Friday. The problem with Ohio State is that they really haven’t played anyone now they did play Notre Dame at the start of the season and are now sitting at 21 sliding after a loss to USC this past Saturday other than that all they have is a 13 point win against Penn State in Happy Valley by 13 but has no other quality wins to show. TCU is an interesting case as the frogs took care of business against Iowa State but it’s been a rocky road staying undefeated as they have been squeezing out wins at the last minute of games most recently on the road against Baylor with a last-second field goal for the win but have had quality wins against Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State showing how the strength of the Big 12 this year is been the best it has been since well……. 2007 (Missouri and Kansas were both ranked 2nd and 4th respectively). However, TCU has the best Strenght of record with said wins and a victory against K-State in Jerry’s World will automatically punch them a ticket for a Playoff spot K-State is looking to play spoiler and get revenge for a double-digit loss in October so if that happens a whole can of worms is sure to be opened as well as Utah pulling the upset against USC if that were to happen. As a wrestling fan, I like to do this thing called “Fantasy Booking” where I play out random scenarios that won’t happen and I imagine that they will happen let us get to booking shall we? Let's start with the obvious but not the safest scenario.
UGA, Michigan, TCU, and USC all take care of business in their respective championship games and there are your 4 teams with Ohio State on the outside and possibly another Rose Bowl or Orange Bowl appearance. But here is the Chaos scenario or should I say scenarios, I forgot to mention LSU but they crapped the bed against A&M and have three losses so they really don’t fit in anymore. (I Would like to note that this is my thinking and have looked at no outside sources other than the team's schedules and the current CFP rankings)
Now, UGA, Michigan, and USC take care of business BUT, TCU has a close loss in the Big-12 championship game against K-State and has one loss on the season and the wildcats get revenge. Leaving TCU a one-loss non-conference champion the same as Ohio State. Now, what would the committee do? Give Ohio State the pity spot because of just three wins against ranked opponents? (Notre Dame was ranked 5 in the AP poll when they played Ohio State) Or rather take the team who has had quality wins up and down the schedule in the Horned Frogs? I say they take TCU as the fourth team because of the quality of their record and how they have played throughout the season. Meaning it would be the same as the current top 4 with the caveat of TCU not being a conference champion. That’s kind of the easy Chaos Scenario but to really open Pandora’s Box let's take a look at this scenario.
Now this one kind of starts the same with UGA and Michigan winning and being in the playoff but THIS is where it could get confusing.
USC loses to Utah and once again the Pac-12 shoots themselves in the foot once again to be in the CFP
TCU loses to K-State (Same as MY Scenario 1)
Now we have two spots to fill and here are the candidates
A one-loss Ohio State team that got smoked by 22 at home to Michigan
TCU fresh off of their first loss of the season in their Championship game
A two-loss Alabama team who didn’t even win their division or make their Championship game
A two-loss Tennessee team who is in the same boat as Bama
A two-loss ACC champion in Clemson
Talk about a list of candidates for the third and fourth spots but here is the easy part I think TCU is the easy bet for the third spot in this scenario because of their schedule and how they have played the entire season. It’s the fourth spot where things get really interesting with a two-loss conference champion in Clemson but I don’t think they have a chance regardless because of how lackluster their schedule is and the weakness of the ACC so they won’t get in. Now you have three teams that all have great cases to make it but also have cases against them for not making it. So let’s look at the three we have
A one-loss team in Ohio State has the best chance in this scenario to slide into that fourth spot.
Both Bama and Tennessee teams have two losses but the Vols have the head-to-head against Bama beating them at Rocky Top in a classic game
Now the committee always loves the SEC and Bama which in past years got really annoying and they still show love to them. But playing this out in my head it’s a literal revolving door so your guess could be as good as mine. So to make a long story short we could see a very boring and pedestrian selection show or we could have full-blown chaos come Sunday personally I want chaos and if LSU didn’t lose to the Aggies this past Saturday (did I mention this already?) and somehow pull the upset of all upsets then it would be even more chaotic. With that being said I WANT ALL THE CHAOS. BLOOD FOR THE BLOOD GOD SKULLS FOR THE SKULL THRONE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Comments